two months have passed since i posted the question lol, but hey..thanks, nice table you got there.
The success rate is quite high based on the table, but fact is the odd to get +3, +4 or even higher is not as easy

, wonder if the default success rate can be tampered by the publisher
if anyone have time please make an application to simulate the refining rate based on the table above with custom price for mirage/im stone, I bet it shouldn't cost too much to make like a +8. Just for reference a +9 costed me $200 when 1m gold worthed around $0.7, but extra cost was needed for transferring it.