Elixir success rate - Bot

[SandSnip3r_]

Hey all. I wrote a little blog post while working on my bot and playing around with elixirs:

[aale12]

Excellent blog. Been lurking 14 years and had to break my virginity to comment on this. Thoroughly enjoyed the read. It's a coincidence but a neat surprise that I explored a similar recursive algorithm to try and predict success rates for my current private server. Most interesting in particular was the bit about the lucky stone. I also wasn't able to find out any information about exactly what its effect was by asking around. No one seemed to know.

You said the lucky stone rate isn't in the database and is likely hard coded into the server files. Is this something private server owners can edit? In any case great work!

[SandSnip3r_]

Whoa! That's awesome hah. Breaking a lurking streak like that is an honor.

I can't find anything in the database about the luck stone rate. I looked at the params for magic options and didn't see anything obvious when it came to lucky. Sector1337 on discord said he has a rough idea where it is in the binary, as he's done some reverse engineering. I didn't chase that down, so I don't know. My guess is that no private server is modifying this value. I don't see why they couldn't, in principal.

[brayan3011]

Originally Posted by aale12

Excellent blog. Been lurking 14 years and had to break my virginity to comment on this. Thoroughly enjoyed the read. It's a coincidence but a neat surprise that I explored a similar recursive algorithm to try and predict success rates for my current private server. Most interesting in particular was the bit about the lucky stone. I also wasn't able to find out any information about exactly what its effect was by asking around. No one seemed to know.

You said the lucky stone rate isn't in the database and is likely hard coded into the server files. Is this something private server owners can edit? In any case great work!

Man I can relate so much, I haven't played in around 15 years what seems to be longer as I forgot how to do literally everything, I go inside my first private sro because global is impossible to join and I'm asking questions here and there and all I get hit back with is with a bunch of acronyms like I know what the f they mean and those are the ones who respond not the ones that just ignore your whole existence. I'll take that read as well and learn something again, thanks for the post!

[biscu97]

Originally Posted by aale12

Excellent blog. Been lurking 14 years and had to break my virginity to comment on this. Thoroughly enjoyed the read. It's a coincidence but a neat surprise that I explored a similar recursive algorithm to try and predict success rates for my current private server. Most interesting in particular was the bit about the lucky stone. I also wasn't able to find out any information about exactly what its effect was by asking around. No one seemed to know.

You said the lucky stone rate isn't in the database and is likely hard coded into the server files. Is this something private server owners can edit? In any case great work!

From dg 1 to 10, the lucky stone rate is 1%, from dg 11 whole alchemy is more complex but I think it's still 1 % there. I looked inside the coding for the alchemy

[leo2111]

this is all what i found about the alchemy calculation

enjoy

short explanation, the generated number between 0 ~ 100 is pure random,
the success ratio its based on the probability calculated in the first function by summing the ratios defined into SQL Database per each type of enhancement item, if the second item exists(powder in this case), even if the resulted ratio is 50, the chance of success is 50, fail is 50. Even if it's 60+, you still have a chance of 40% of fail, if the ratio resulted is < 100 , the luck blue added on weapon it's getting used into the calculation and removed from the item , otherwise is not getting consumed, the luck dress and premium or a luck scroll gets calculated as well... and as well gets calculated for isro files , the server event luck ratio for the items < 12 degree

so ya ..

[SandSnip3r_]

Here's another post on the topic:

Originally Posted by biscu97

From dg 1 to 10, the lucky stone rate is 1%, from dg 11 whole alchemy is more complex but I think it's still 1 % there. I looked inside the coding for the alchemy

I'm skeptical about that.
1. I'm pretty sure, at least with the binary I'm using, it's 5%, not 1%. But like I said, I haven't actually looked in the binary. I just checked empirically.
2. Is there really a difference at 11d? I would think maybe at 12d and higher.

Originally Posted by leo2111

if the ratio resulted is < 100 , the luck blue added on weapon it's getting used into the calculation and removed from the item , otherwise is not getting consumed

Oh wow, I wondered about that. Cool

[ahmed4ever2u]

why so serious !?
with the efforts written in your artical, you could simply apply for MBA and get the degree easily !

[#HB]

Originally Posted by ahmed4ever2u

why so serious !?

I honestly think that how everyone should deal with their problems.

I personally thought it was astonishing. It's impressive how he used modern technology and machine learning especially on such an old game like Silkroad to get more understanding on how such simple tasks work.

Originally Posted by ahmed4ever2u

with the efforts written in your artical, you could simply apply for MBA and get the degree easily !

With that level of knowledge, I think he might be already hired.

He's probably doing it just for fun, you know.. just how it used to be like, in the past..

[aale12]

Originally Posted by leo2111

this is all what i found about the alchemy calculation

enjoy

short explanation, the generated number between 0 ~ 100 is pure random,
the success ratio its based on the probability calculated in the first function by summing the ratios defined into SQL Database per each type of enhancement item, if the second item exists(powder in this case), even if the resulted ratio is 50, the chance of success is 50, fail is 50. Even if it's 60+, you still have a chance of 40% of fail, if the ratio resulted is < 100 , the luck blue added on weapon it's getting used into the calculation and removed from the item , otherwise is not getting consumed, the luck dress and premium or a luck scroll gets calculated as well... and as well gets calculated for isro files , the server event luck ratio for the items < 12 degree

so ya ..

Thanks for this insight into how alchemy works behind the scenes. It's nice to see that me and others have made (mostly) correct assumptions about how the probabilities are calculated.

[BDSam]

Originally Posted by SandSnip3r_

Hey all. I wrote a little blog post while working on my bot and playing around with elixirs:

good info
can you check info about stones if they some how they related with plusing
and if I can get your excel sheet ?

[crossbow123]

i think İ've seen someone importing the hex codes of flat alchemy rates before but I've never seen lucky powder and luck stone calculations. From my personal experience I sort of guessed lucky powder ratio would be additive, but now seeing it confirmed is very cool.
thanks for your work, one of the best post I've seen in this site.