I said that it is not 100% sure. But the forge technique that I used to do back then, I used it in Rohan PH. The forging rate there is low (Of course, because if it is that easy then no one would buy preservation stones). Stop saying ***** about me. Hahaha. I just said what I think is possible cause of increase in success in forging or reinforcing.
Furthermore, those things that I said was base from my experience. Come at Zenon Development and try making +15 weapon/acce. Most people there already used 200+ pcs WRS/ARS III and still no success in making +15. But for me I only use not more than 60pcs WRS/ARS III in making +15. But as I said, I think the staff noticed that we were able to make +15 (like only three of us) and +15 items can only be acquired from donation. And maybe that's why these past few days we can't do it anymore. They might have removed the % in making +15.