Proven Theory

[Rancid-Milk-Man]

I belive Conquer deals with "hot spots". The longer you stay in a certain spawn the hotter it gets and less "rare" items drop. I've proven this facted in Adventure zone to work. I've been following other theories and they just didn't sit right. For the longest time I've been trying to figure out why? and why and why but still nothing. Untill I looked at the Counter. Why exactly do we need to see how many monsters we've killed? It's simple. This is how it works
---
In adventure you have the map with

hugesnakes
Bandit Leaders
and Firespirits.

Start off where ever you want and kill 100+ monsters. By that time the spawn should be hot. Move down to a fresh spawn and I garantee you something will drop after a few kills. Keep repeating this method and you'll be one happy hunter.

[Hojo]

You do realise, thats total ****, think about it, why would TQ go into that much detail, thats a rather complex thing to do, when they can just make a few lines to do random drops.

Im sick of all these so called "Proven Theories"

There not, its RANDOM

[neogohan1]

lol...didn't have to attack him that viciously...as long as he doesn't get karma for his "proven theory" i really don't think it's something u should get too worked up about, heh.


Edit: by the way, i agree with hojo, i think the hunting system would be the longer u hunt the more you find.

cause pretty much every other system in conquer works that way such as mining where u gget more gems based on spot AND how long you've been in a spot, and then u get less ores after you stand in a spot for a long time.

it's luck...maybe u just happened to get lucky when u were hunting or maybe we're both wrong but everyone's allowed to have their opinion, just don't say it's "proven" next time till it gets confirmed by at least 2-3 others with more then 50 posts (just to make sure it's not you making another account).

[S.O]

If anyone is interested in my opinion:

I agree that it's all random... BUT!

Randomizers are very predictable after a while... thus - making Rancid-Milk-Mans' theory (and the gemspot theory) semi-valid. I've noticed - on numerous occasions - that certain mobs drop more +1 items, elites, etc (never found a super ) on different times. If you notice - there are also players that take advantage of this, say, a high lvl fire hunting at BirdMan where he/she could easily 1-hit Hawkings...

all in all - it is random
but so many randoms dealing with 1 specific subject may become predictable (statisticly)

i imagine it built like this:

each mob has its own drop-queue (drops consist of cash and items) the queue is randomly generated (which might explain why after maint there's a minute or so where no mobs are spawned)

each mob you kill has a random access to the queue - thus random drop off randomly generated packs of items.

every random is bound by time (randomizer is initialized with ticks).

the drop randoms are (guessing here) calculated with hits / damage on the specific mob (notice 1 hit mobs drop better things?)

all those randoms must (statisticly) join together to some formula that is somewhat predictable / obvious. which varies (because every statistic has "weird values") - which makes it random / lucky / predictable.

blabber blabber blabber?

- the end -

[img]text2schild.php?smilienummer=1&text=Then again, I may be totally wrong AND totally insane' border='0' alt='Then again, I may be totally wrong AND totally insane' />

[Rancid-Milk-Man]

Ok you guys keep thinking its random I'll keep getting rich.

[rey2k9]

rofl

[sonybaci]

i think this theory didn't exist -.- I tried it...

[morbidloki]

yeah im a noob at the forum and ive browsed quiet a bit
S.O, with u asking "notice 1 hit mobs drop better things?" couldnt you have paused to think that maybe thats simply because your killing more? with randomised items or set, th more u kill teh moer u get hence 1 hitting mob will get u better things than 2-8 hit kills

further note. upon noticing if im the only person using a map and a met drops, its guaranteed it shall not be logn before the next drops, this could be with a randomisation as a monster is spawned not as u pick/items drop, just a thought
i.e +1's could be randomised less often than mets are with a spawning of a monster, if ur the only person killing on a map at a spawn lets say, the only monsters spawning are at that spawn, so mets/+1's should only be dropped near u, if someone happened (not likely) to get AC2 all to themselves they could test this out at min macs/slow apesand test an approximate range between +1's dropped

[Bountey]

So u know,U could kill a mob,and that mob could drop an item.
Lets say an item like a CloudCap,ok now lets say u pick it up after 5 seconds and its only normal,now lets you would of picked it up 10 seconds later BANG a +1.
The +1s arent decided until u acctually pick em up,thats why u cant see if its +1 or not until u picked it up.
Oh and that thing about hot spot and cold spot is totaly wrong.
I have proof of why its wrong and that is the server emulators of Conquer.
They are scripted the same way and they definitly dont have stuff like that,but one thing they do have is random drops

[kruidvatgeenfratsen1]

Originally posted by S.O@Feb 19 2006, 11:21

Randomizers are very predictable after a while...

Randomizers are predictable indeed because they follow certain formula.

> for the programmers <
while (1)
{
srand(0); // seed
for( int i=0;i<3;i++)
printf("%i ",rand());
}

// will print the same set number over and over and over

so rand can be defined as a funtion that does something similar to:
short rand(void)
{
seed++;
return 3*seed*seed*cos(seed); // not the real seed function
}
// when seed is set or reset it wil deliver the same numbers

the seed function sets the seed var to a certain number

> for the non-programmers <
The random function on computers works according to some formula
example: f(x) = 3*x²*cos(x)

every time a random number is generated the x variable is increased


This would mean that when you know the current X you would be able to calculate the next outcome of f

But it's impossible to predict the next formula outcome when you don't know all the data.
What I mean is: everytime someone kills a monster or walks around or gambles etc, the x of that formula is increased aswell.

So unless you could get EVERY event that happend on the server(meaning standing in your house, and knowing that some silvers dropped in bi from monster with ID, killed by player with PID) there is no chance in predicting the next x.

So the random function of CO might even be a very simple linear: f(x) = x
but it would still be unpredictable, due to the fact of incomplete data

[sonybaci]

Originally posted by Rancid-Milk-Man@Feb 19 2006, 20:48
Ok you guys keep thinking its random I'll keep getting rich.

u're a greedy boy...

[kiom]

:uglylol:
This is just like "gemspots", "socket time/coords", "upgrading quality time/coords"...
Nothing of those works >
[img]text2schild.php?smilienummer=1&text=Total bullshit :P' border='0' alt='Total bullshit :P' />

[andyandy]

the only proven theory that does work is:

keep mining and you will find something good.
keep hunting and you will find something good.

if you didn't get anything good, you didnt do it long enough.

[~Unknown~]

Originally posted by andyandy@Mar 16 2006, 22:10
the only proven theory that does work is:

keep mining and you will find something good.
keep hunting and you will find something good.

if you didn't get anything good, you didnt do it long enough.

Perfect Theories ROFL

[SmartGuy]

hrm, i think, its chanced, kinda like ragnarok, pretend the pheasant has a chance of dropping the following:

Dragonball, Meteor, Sword, Blade, Spear, and wand(Forgot wat the low lvl weapons were named)

The chance of each item dropping is:

Sword: 100%
Blade: 50%
Spear: 25%
Wand: 12%
Meteor: 1%
DragonBall: 00.05%

And the chances of the sword, Blade, Spear, and wand being a super is 00.05%

Thats just my theory.