It is not random!

[arabugas]

I feel very sorry for those who still think lottery, sockets, mets, dbs from monsters are random. It is not! Does somebody learn math at school? Ok, ill explain my theory, that you could understand the pattern of possibilities.

Lets say we have a blue, red, and two green ***** in a box. You must draw one. What is the possibility you draw a red one? it is 25% , or 1/4 . Becouse a red ball is one of four. How much chances we have to draw a green ball? The chances are 50% = 2/4 = 1/2
. Becouse there are 2 green ***** from 4 at all.

another example: we flip a coin. What is the possibility of tails? It is 50% becouse Chance of heads = Chance of tails.

So, i explained the simplified theory of possibilities.

Lets proceed to CO socs. For those who say it is random. Lets say you are spamming mets for soc. Lets say it is random. If it is random, the chance of getting soc = the chance of not getting soc = 50% . It means if you spam 2 mets theorically you MUST get a soc. If you spam 10 mets, you theorically must get 5 socs. becouse 10 x 50% = 5 .

Lets proceed to lottery. If it is random, it means that Chance of getting a +8 item = Chance of getting super item = Chance of getting an elite 2 soc = Chance of getting a +6 stone = Chance of getting met tear pack = Chance of getting + stone pack = Chance of getting one met = Chance of getting a DB
It means chance of getting a met equals chance of getting a 2 soc item.
But why are we winning only those stupid stone packs and mets?
BECOUSE IT IS NOT RANDOM!
TQ has luck rates, possibility rates and do on. For example in lottery (im just guessing) Chance of getting a met = 30%; Chance of getting a db = 5 %, Chance of getting a super = 2%. They have set chance rates.

So, if you go to school (or you have finished it) and sometimes learn english and maths, you should understand my point. And my point is It is NOT random!

[Hiyoal]

Correct point. The algorithms used have set data types to lower the chances as I have only just learned in Math in the last month xD!

Hiyoal

[MushyPeas]

Ofcourse it's not truly random, a computer has to be able to pick what prize to give you, that right there excludes true randomness.

The point is that it's too close to random, using too many variables we don't know about that the odds of figuring out the system are close to nonexistant, which means the results will always be random to us, as we have no way of predicting them.

[polikujm]

Originally Posted by arabugas

Lets proceed to CO socs. For those who say it is random. Lets say you are spamming mets for soc. Lets say it is random. If it is random, the chance of getting soc = the chance of not getting soc = 50% . It means if you spam 2 mets theorically you MUST get a soc. If you spam 10 mets, you theorically must get 5 socs. becouse 10 x 50% = 5 .

i guess you failed in math too. Being random doesnt meant you MUST get a soc if you tried 2 times... all the simple events are independent events, meaning EVERY time you try to get a soc with a met, there is 50% chance of getting a soc...

but the chance is not 50% in this case, cause i believe TQ will be able to set the chance rate like what everyone is saying...

chance of getting soc is like 0.0001%
and change of not getting soc is 1 - 0.0001%

but all in all it is still random just that the probability is LOW... it is still a random variable for x, let x=number of socs made from a sample size of 1000 tries...

[gta74]

Originally Posted by arabugas

another example: we flip a coin. What is the possibility of tails? It is 50% becouse Chance of heads = Chance of tails.

Sry, not entirely true. Because you missed the third chance: the coin can stop on his edge

[Zupall]

true, it is not random, but chances are so small that it looks random. Actually nothing in the world is random, it can all be lead back to algorithms which are just very difficult

[Evan Lim]

arabugas@
not random, so what?
i pick a number non-randomly in my head, even u guess it 1000 times, probably partial numbers are correct, but not like u can guess the whole thing right
the point is, as long as u dont know the true equations behind CO, it will look random

[reptileguy]

Originally Posted by arabugas

BECOUSE IT IS NOT RANDOM!

your definition of random means an equal chance for all possibilities? That's not how most here use the word random in regards to lotto. They use it to mean that there are no tricks to getting good items. They use it to mean that everyone has the same chance to get a good item which we all know is a very low chance per try.

Originally Posted by polikujm

chance of getting soc is like 0.0001%
and change of not getting soc is 1 - 0.0001%

but all in all it is still random just that the probability is LOW... it is still a random variable for x, let x=number of socs made from a sample size of 1000 tries...

I agree with what you said.. but 1 out of 1,000 chance is a .1% chance. 1 out of 100 chance is 1% chance, so 1 out of 1,000 must be .1% chance.

.0001 = one tenthousanths
.0001% chance = 1 out of a million chance.

For those that like probability I will give a tiny reward of 50cps on centaur or bassilik for someone that can figure this problem out. If your not on those servers you can still do it for fun. Here is the problem.. I have 3 boxes with 10 balls each. 1st. box has 4 red, 2 yellow, 4 green balls. 2nd box has 1 red 8 yellow, 1 blue. 3rd box has 2 red, 5 purple, 3 grey. I choose a random ball from each without looking. So now I have 3 balls. Out of those 3 balls,

What is the theoretical possibility that I will have all red balls?
What is the possibility that I will have no red balls?
What is the possibility that I will have all yellow balls(easy trick question)?
Here is the semi-hard question.
what is the possibility that I will have 1 red, 1 yellow, and 1 grey?

I made up this question myself its not from a book or the net.

[Hiyoal]

Originally Posted by reptileguy

your definition of random means an equal chance for all possibilities? That's not how most here use the word random in regards to lotto.

You have missed his point on set values defining the values.

Also, Mushypeas has made a correct point in saying that the values are not random but are determined by a set of algorithms which determine the pick. These are nearly impossible to obtain as it is calculated server sided while you would get prossecuted for hacking into their databases.

Hiyoal

[.bmg]

about the coin -> u can flip x^n times and always get heads ;]

[Huseby]

It mith be codet as simple as i did when i playd around with privat server when i was with out internett. Simple add one item more than one time giving it a biger chance of getting won.

[KitsunePaws]

Originally Posted by arabugas

Lets proceed to CO socs. For those who say it is random. Lets say you are spamming mets for soc. Lets say it is random. If it is random, the chance of getting soc = the chance of not getting soc = 50% . It means if you spam 2 mets theorically you MUST get a soc. If you spam 10 mets, you theorically must get 5 socs. becouse 10 x 50% = 5

Randomness is a lack of order, purpose, cause, or predictability in non-scientific parlance. A random process is a repeating process whose outcomes follow no describable deterministic pattern, but follow a probability distribution.

I will agree that it is in fact not random, but a series of algorithms, most likely based off of the server cpu clock to try to mimic random, with luckytime added on top, for example

Let's say they do it this way,
they use a script when you met an item which will draw a number 1-1000 based off the cpu clock, if your number is between 990-1000 you get a soc. Your chance of that happening are very very slim, however, let's say that once that number is drawn they have another script that if you're using luckytime will give you +10 to your number, while it's still very unlikely that it will help you, it gives you a better chance at a soc. This would infact not be random as it is based off of the cpu timer, but it would be random enough for players not to be able to figure out a method of cheating the system.

Also, your 50/50 analogy is way off, let's say that you are watching a gameshow and the gameshow has two doors for a player to pick, one has a million dollars, the other has nothing, YOUR chances of winning are 50/50, however in that entire series of the show, the outcome will not be 50/50 as there is the unknown of which door to pick, and you will have things lean one way or the other.

[reptileguy]

Originally Posted by Hiyoal

You have missed his point on set values defining the values.

Also, Mushypeas has made a correct point in saying that the values are not random but are determined by a set of algorithms which determine the pick. These are nearly impossible to obtain as it is calculated server sided while you would get prossecuted for hacking into their databases.

Hiyoal

agreed on this point.

We have those that think there might be a trick to increase your luck in lotto And we have those that think there are no tricks(except possibly hacking). Those that feel there are no tricks refer to it as "random" even though it might not be truly random, it's close enough for the word to apply for our purposes. I've played this game for over 1 yr. and spent about 25 dbs in lotto over that time. I have about 15 dbs in prizes to show for it. I've acctully had better luck buying and opening moonboxes.

[quail717]

your logic on getting sockets is just twisting statistics. that is like saying if you have 100 suitcases and all are empty but one which has 1 million dollars the chances of getting it are 50/50 rather than 1/100. the only two things that can happen if you choose one are you get the money or you dont, true but that doesnt mean you will get 1 million dollars every other time

[Phoenix_arrow]

your all thinking to 'short term'

obviously theres some form of algorithm to choose the item, but what about the next item. the reason lottery is "random" is because the first item follows no set pattern in regards to the next item. imagine it like ***** in a bag.
2 red and 2 green. theres a 50pct chance of getting red, 50 of green. 25pct of getting 2 of the same colour, 50pct of getting 2 different. if you get 2 reds, thats a 25pct chance. but then if you put the ***** back, and try again, your may get the same *****, you may not. it doesnt influence it

simply put, the first item follows an algorithm, so does the second, but there is no corrolation between the first and second item. with no corrolation between the items, you can mathematicaly say the items differ randomly. as there is no distinct pattern between each item, you can safely predict that the next time you get the same item will be random. this disproves loto theorys, as they involve winning good at a certain time, on a certain coord etc, but those coords at those times on a different day give different things.


and anyway, TQ probably use a random number generator, generate X numbers, divide by X, round off to nearest whole number and you get that item. more common items will hold more numbers. the only way to "hack" this would be to hack TQ, and force the numbers.