I will post the log if I can replicate it again with the most updated version of your bot. It isn't common for me to fail leves. It was done using an alt. The version that was failing was indeed from a few post back, not the one you uploaded in post #161.
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About orbs there are 4 general types:
White: all actions ok
Yellow: all actions ok
Red: avoid bold, standard it out.
Prismatic: avoid completely, wait 3 times max to lose it, many times 1 or 2 waits will suffice.
It had been speculated that different colors meant different difficulty in that particular synth with White (stable) -> Yellow -> Red -> Prismatic (Flashing/Unstable). If you were to "Careful Synth" Prismatic, chances are you would turn the synthesis chaotic. Hence as a general rule, you try to avoid it (there are exceptions when attempting HQ under unique circumstances).
The general rule for waiting out of prismatic is a maximum of 3 tries, beyond that it's not worth waiting and you should attempt a standard synth, then proceed with waiting again if the orb remains prismatic.
The speed crafting abilities, Piece by Piece, Assemble, Grand Design, etc, can be used under all circumstances regardless of orb, for the most part the orb status does not hinder the rate of success for those abilities.
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Yes if it doesn't send the same tell twice, that would suffice. Right now I pause the bot, send tell then unpause the bot whenever I do it to prevent the same message being sent twice. It tends to happen when the bot is about to do an action, sending it at those moments sometimes results in the message being sent twice.
If you still need clarification on the intricacies of crafting/orb statuses let me know, I am more than willing to help.
An update about HQing: High Quality =/= Increased Chance of HQ. Instead it increases your chance of a higher order of HQ. I.E. +2/+3. But another thing actually comes into play regarding HQ, and that is the item rank of its ingredients. I.E. if you had a recipe that requires 2 items, a r50 and a r25, HQ of the r50 item will predominate towards increasing your chance of HQ, however whether you get HQ +1,2,3 will be determined by how high you can push the quality up. This is essentially true as I have crafted hundreds of hours and I'm pretty confident in this, until 1.20 when they will change the HQ system.
"Careful synth" during Prismatic and Red will indeed yield higher quality gains. HOWEVER your success will be very limited with recipes you don't outrank by at least 10 ranks. In addition, it is ideal that you only attempt a bold on red or prismatic following a chain of successful actions (ideally standard). Repeated bold synths, successful or not, drastically increases the inherent "risk" of the synthesis making any additional bold attempts more likely to fail.
The HQ system as it is right now is way to complicated for the bot to efficiently do it, but a note of the orb statuses alone will go a long way in success.
thanks for reminding me manuela, I have been meaning to change that for a long time now because it irritates me that I choose wait when their are abilities up and then after wait they are gone. I'll put something in