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Randomize and weak law of large numbers

Old   #1
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Join Date: Jan 2014
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Randomize and weak law of large numbers

assume you have a rate on demonbox for 10/10/30/50
which is 10 percent to win something, other 10 for something else and so on
while you think it's fair rates it's not, it could be profitable as it will tend to apply the weak law of large numbers when people try it alot

what is the weak law of large numbers ?
Law of large numbers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
or in simple words it's that random rates will be accurate when the tries increase

you may try this box for 10 times and result could be something like
2 for 10%
0 for 10%
6 for the 30%
and 2 for the 50%
which doesn't really gives you the rates you expected

but withing 10k times the result should be more like
1k for 10%
1k for 10%
3k for 30%
and 50k for 50%
still irl it won't be that accurate but it will tend to be more like 1324 or 950 but that's better accuracy and it will get even better with more tries

so how your players could abuse this without even knowing all that information ?
i've been at some server where demonbox of 10k have a rates of (most likely 10/15/20/55 for gifts of 138k/69k/6.9k respectively)
owner tend to think it's not profitable and players tend to think it is profitable, so who is right ? lets do the math

on few tries like 10 you will tend to get maybe 0-2 138k , 0-2 69k, 0-4 6.9k which isn't so profitable
but on many tires like 10k it must tend to be 1k 138k, 1.5k 69k, 2k 6.9k and 5.5k loss
boxes are worth 100kk, profit is (138k*1k) + (1.5k*69k) + (2k*6.9k) = 255.3kk Guaranteed !

at this particular server it is lower than that but they haven't done the math yet but don't feel bad about yourself if you have fall in this because tq did
at the first day tq released demonboxes, rates of 138k drop was something like 5/1000 which sounds impossible, but when you do the math it's no longer impossible, which why tq had 3 restarts adjusting the rates of the 127x prizes

goodluck and have a wonderful day

OverKill. is offline  
2 Users
Old 02/10/2014, 15:09   #2
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Join Date: May 2011
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Talking about unfair.
Exploiting Math in a legit way. The computer has a much higher chance to win while its not influencing the coinflip at all.

Penney's game - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sourcecode attached. simple ****.
Attached Files
File Type: rar CoinFlipAlgo.rar (24.9 KB, 5 views)

Y u k i is offline  
1 User
Old 02/11/2014, 13:22   #3
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Posts: 366
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**** you now I need to do some research.
Execution! is offline  
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