We won't know until after it's in place and people actually get banned. If you do not want to risk getting banned, then don't use any 3rd party programs! If you are really worried a lot, then you shouldn't use any 3rd party programs for a couple of weeks to a month to see how they go about the whole process.
In short, you will have to be patient and not use any programs to be "safe". I'd suggest creating different new accounts and test things on those before your main though. Just because there might not be a ban the first week or two, it doesn't mean they aren't simply collecting all the names and doing a massive ban at the end of a month.
Remember how the massive Xian ban went in the first half of 2007? A lot of people thought they were safe then JM kept on rolling out ban list after ban list? That is what you have to be careful of this time around again.
Good luck :)
