I said that it is not 100% sure. But the forge technique that I used to do back then, I used it in Rohan PH. The forging rate there is low (Of course, because if it is that easy then no one would buy preservation stones). Stop saying shits about me. Hahaha. I just said what I think is possible cause of increase in success in forging or reinforcing. :(
Furthermore, those things that I said was base from my experience. Come at Zenon Development and try making +15 weapon/acce. Most people there already used 200+ pcs WRS/ARS III and still no success in making +15. But for me I only use not more than 60pcs WRS/ARS III in making +15. But as I said, I think the staff noticed that we were able to make +15 (like only three of us) and +15 items can only be acquired from donation. And maybe that's why these past few days we can't do it anymore. They might have removed the % in making +15.