Leo211,
If you know some probability on Maths you will understand you talking wrong. Let me clarify:
About knock-down skill 50% prob.:
1st try: failed to kd / prob. on 50%.
2nd try: prob. again 50%
Because those two events are independent.
About alchemy... Failing one item wont makes your next plus easier to fuse..
It is all about luck..
I failed +6 2times in a row sometimes..
Sometimes I made +9 --> +12 without fail.
Also dg12 and over alchemy isnt like d11 or lower. Success rate is same for each plus till +12.
For example +0 to +1 is same as +11 to +12.
Thats why we sometimes fail to make plus 1, 4 times failing in a row.
So... It is all all about luck... And if you want to understand a bit experimental probability.. You need make more tries. More tries = closer value to exact probability...
For example you claim if you fail first one next ones probability will increase.. to prove that you must make 1000tries at least to say a thing. Else we call it coindicence.
Anyway, nvm kanka;)